The Start Investing Blog

It will be the year that no one will ever forget, and the volatile nature of the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on the UK stock market.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Investors began to see the start of what was to come in late February, which culminated in the FTSE 100 suffering the second worst crash in a single day on 12th March 2020.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     After ‘bottoming out’ a couple of weeks later, the FTSE 100 had lost around a third of its value. It was clear that a significant change of fortune was required to breakeven for the year.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     The race was on to recover the losses to the                                                                                                     Start Investing Stock Portfolio                                                                                                (SISP)
 

Hi investors,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     As many of our regular readers know, we follow the same routine at the end of each month in order to select our monthly stock pick. This routine can be broken down into 4 simple steps:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Step 1 - High-Level Screening                                                                      (Stocks analysed -                                                                         2750                                                                      )                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           We run a high-level screen for all companies available on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) using our list of key parameters (                                                                                                                     you can read about these in our ebook                                                                                                                ).                                                                                                                                                      Only around                                                                                     3%                                                                                  of all stocks in the UK meet our strict criteria.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Step 2 - IVI Evaluation                                                                                                (Stocks analysed -                                                                               50-80                                                                            )                                                                                                                                                                                             We then assess each company using our                                                                                     Inherent Value Index                                                                                  (or IVI) evaluation method.                                                                                                                                                      This method takes into account key financial data, past and projected, and often removes a further 35-70 companies from the list.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Step 3 - Stock Pick Selection                                                                      (Stocks analysed -                                                                         10-15                                                                      )                                                                                                                                                                                    At this point, we are left with fewer than 20 under-valued, dividend-paying companies (approximately 0.5% of the companies available on the LSE).                                                                                                                                                      From this list, we evaluate                                                                                     annual reports                                                                                  and                                                                                     company announcements                                                                                  to ensure that we have left no stone unturned before making our selection and circulating to our                                                                                                                     stock pick subscribers                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Step 4 - Investing                                                                                                (Stock selected -                                                                                                             1                                                                                                        )                                                                                                                                                                                                            Once the data analysis is complete, we wait for the first weekday of the month before investing our hard-earned cash into a company which we believe will stand us in good stead over the coming months and years.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Simple but effective.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Plus500 Ltd                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    In the summer of 2019, after going through this rigorous analysis, we landed on a company called                                                                         Plus500 Ltd                                                                      (PLUS) as our July monthly stock pick. From our analysis, this international financial firm appeared to be trading at a                                                                         heavily reduced                                                                      share price of only                                                                         £5.24                                                                      , having had a tough year in the market.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Tighter regulations had meant a crack down in their industry, and many investors pulled out of the company believing it would not survi                                                                                        ve. However, our                                                                         IVI method                                                                      revealed a                                                                                        VERY strong                                                                                        set of financials and believed the market was wrong.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Within 3 weeks, the stock price had risen by a whopping                                                                         25%                                                                      which prompted                                                                                                     Joe’s blog post                                                                                                in late July. Despite this                                                                         short-term win                                                                      , our analysis indicated that the company was still very much                                                                         under-valued                                                                      .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  As a consequence, at end of July 2019 we followed the numbers again and made a                                                                         second investment                                                                      into PLUS at a share price of                                                                         £6.11                                                                      .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     For the rest of 2019, the share price continued to climb through £7.00 and £8.00, paying (literal) dividends along the way, until on the 4th March 2020, it had hit                                                                         £9.57                                                                      per share.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Then came Monday 9th March 2020: ‘                                                                         Black Monday                                                                      ’. Global markets were turned on their heads as investors came to the realisation that the COVID-19 pandemic would disrupt life as we know it.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     As the share price fell to                                                                         £7.31                                                                      on 16th March, we wondered whether we’d missed the boat to sell. Should we sell and take the profit now? Or should we hold and hope for a recovery?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     As ever, we looked at the numbers. After conducting further                                                                         IVI                                                                      analysis, we opted for the latter; at the current share price, the IVI method indicated that the company was                                                                         still under-valued                                                                      by the market.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   The share price duly                                                                         bounced back                                                                      towards the end of March and                                                                         continued to rise                                                                      throughout April.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     By 24th April 2020, the company was trading at                                                                         over £12.50                                                                      per share. At this valuation, according to our calculations the company was moving from                                                                         under-valued                                                                      to a                                                                         fair valuation                                                                      status.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     This led us to asking 2 questions:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1. Do we trust in our IVI evaluation method and think that this company is no longer under-valued?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       YES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2. Would we be happy to take the profits gained so far to re-invest into other under-valued companies?                                                                                                                                                                   YES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           It was time to                                                                         sell                                                                      . We sold our stake in PLUS at a share price of                                                                         £12.51                                                                      .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Overall, the numbers really speak for themselves when you work out the overall % profit over the 9-month period.
 

Hi investors,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             So, this Monday (9th March 2020, or ‘Black Monday’) investors across the world witnessed one of those sobering feelings as global stock markets                                                                         turned uniformly red                                                                      .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Billions of dollar                                                                                                        s                                                                            were wiped off the face of the Earth by a swirling vortex of terror - one part                                                                               unchecked spread of coronavirus                                                                            , one part                                                                               oil price war                                                                            .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Before 9am UK time on Monday, over                                                                         £120bn was lost from the FTSE 100 alone                                                                      , which closed                                                                         down 7.2%                                                                      . A drop like that in a single day hasn’t been recorded since the                                                                         financial crash in 2008                                                                      .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Interesting times lie ahead…                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              However,                                                                               do not lose hope                                                                            !  People react irrationally during market downturns, and it is at times like these that investors need their decisions to be directed by their                                                                               heads                                                                            more than by their                                                                               hearts                                                                            .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       For example, we know that the companies which we invest in are                                                                               good companies                                                                            . Some are even                                                                               g                                                                                                        reat companies                                                                            that have been around for decades, through several market crashes (and                                                                               oil price wars                                                                            )! And because of this, we will                                                                                                             continue to invest regularly                                                                                                        into the UK stock market as we strive towards financial freedom.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Anecdotally, the stock market takes a downturn                                                                         every 10 years                                                                      . The last                                                                         ‘crash'                                                                      was in 2008, and we could be on the verge of the next blip.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     But as Warren Buffet would say:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          “Be fearful when others are greedy.                                                                                           Be greedy when others are fearful                                                                                        .”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         With this in mind, we spied an interesting exerpt from an                                                                         Investors Chronicle (IC)                                                                      supplement this week, which recommended                                                                         ’10 Shares for Your ISA’                                                                      .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Obviously, we couldn’t resist putting each company through our                                                                                                             Inherent Value Index (IVI)                                                                                                        evaluation to see whether any of these companies were                                                                               good value investments                                                                            .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             As outlined in our                                                                         free ebook                                                                                                                            “The Start Investing Guide to Stock Screening”                                                                                                (which you can get for                                                                         free                                                                      by subscribing                                                                                                     here                                                                                                ), we have certain                                                                         metrics                                                                      that we live by when it comes to                                                                         picking stocks                                                                      :
 

When we first started screening for stocks back in January 2018, the first few months produced surprising results:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         housing companies                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                , seemingly making money hand over fist, were trading at a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         huge discount                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         At Start Investing we follow the numbers, and the numbers told us to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         cash in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                on these strong companies that had been beaten down by Brexit uncertainty.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         We continued to buy until early 2019, by that time housing stocks made up a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         large portion                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                of our portfolio and even though we hadn't seen much of a return by then we trusted the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         strong financials                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                these companies were reporting.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Below is the result of our February 2019 screen, as you can see,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         7 of the top 11 are housing companies                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                : Bellway, Redrow, Bovis Homes, Countryside Properties, CRH, Taylor Wimpey and Persommon.
 

Hi investors,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     And just like that, it's been two years since the birth of the Start Investing Stock Portfolio (SISP).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     After buying into our first company on 19th December 2017, we've been regularly adding to the SISP on a monthly basis, and tracking the growth performance and incoming dividends.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     In this biennial review, we thought we'd share with you exactly how it has performed throughout 2018 and 2019.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               TL;DR Summary                                                                                                                                                                                                            Over the last 2 years, our Monthly Stock Picks have outperformed the FTSE 100 by 13.2% and the FTSE 250 by 5.6%                                                                                                                                                      Dividend payments increased the growth of our portfolio by an additional 5.7%                                                                                                                                          (not too long to read now, ey?!)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     As you will see, it really has been a journey of two halves...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2018 - Into the Deep End                                                                                                                                                                                                            Total Number of Companies in Portfolio by 31st December 2018:                                                                                                                     14                                                                                                                                                                                                                Best Performing Portfolio Stock of 2018: Rio Tinto PLC (RIO)                                                                                                                     +4.8%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2018 was a tough year for investors in the UK stock market, and the SISP was no exception. The poor performance over the 12-month period was ascribed to a combination of global volatility for equities and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Following a very positive start in January 2018, the SISP went on to perform similarly to the FTSE 100 Index over 12 months, both of which beat the FTSE 250 Index.
 

It will be the year that no one will ever forget, and the volatile nature of the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on the UK stock market.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Investors began to see the start of what was to come in late February, which culminated in the FTSE 100 suffering the second worst crash in a single day on 12th March 2020.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     After ‘bottoming out’ a couple of weeks later, the FTSE 100 had lost around a third of its value. It was clear that a significant change of fortune was required to breakeven for the year.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     The race was on to recover the losses to the                                                                                                     Start Investing Stock Portfolio                                                                                                (SISP)
 
  






